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Welcome to the fifth week of our NL Central Power Rankings! We’ll release these rankings each week to grade all five teams and place them one through five. As everyone knows with power rankings, these should be taken as gospel and they’re obviously 100% accurate. Without further ado, let’s rank some teams!
1. Chicago Cubs (17-10); 4-1 this week; 97.1% chance to make postseason (Baseball Reference)
The Cubs swept the Dodgers this week at Wrigley, and while their bullpen continues to have issues, their offense is more than making up for it as they look like the best team in the NL Central and one of, if not the best, teams in the league.
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker are both playing at an MVP level, as they’ve compiled 1.8 and 1.4 bWAR so far, respectively. Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, and Carson Kelly are also looking great, but honestly, pretty much everyone on this offense is — none of their regulars have a negative WAR.
The top of the rotation with Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd looks really good, while Ryan Pressly and Julian Merryweather are really the only saving graces in the bullpen to this point. Former Brewer Colin Rea has also been solid in a swing role, making three starts and finishing three games in relief while pitching to a 0.96 ERA.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (13-14); 2-5 this week; 58.1% chance to make postseason
Much like they did in Arizona a few weeks ago, the Brewers let a few games slip from their grasp this week in San Francisco, ultimately dropping three of four to the Giants. That was just the first leg of a 10-game road trip, as the team is now in St. Louis before heading to Chicago to take on the White Sox.
Milwaukee’s offense has been inconsistent at best, though Sal Frelick and Brice Turang are about as consistent as they come as they’re both hitting over .300. Rhys Hoskins, who had a horrid start to the season, has bounced back quite a bit in the last couple weeks and now has a batting average near .300. Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, and William Contreras still look like they have some things to figure out, but Caleb Durbin at third has been about as good as they could’ve asked for after poor starts from Vinny Capra and Oliver Dunn.
The starting rotation, which looked like a major weakness even just two weeks ago, now looks like one of the best. Freddy Peralta’s walks are starting to haunt him, but his ERA is still 2.43 and his FIP is at 3.11. Chad Patrick, Jose Quintana, and Quinn Priester have all been great, and getting Tobias Myers back is huge. The bullpen has been shaky, but Nick Mears, Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig, and Trevor Megill have provided more consistency than others.
3. Cincinnati Reds (13-13); 3-3 this week; 16.9% chance to make postseason
The Reds crushed the Orioles on Easter Sunday but struggled against the Marlins this week, dropping two of three to them in Miami. They’re now in Colorado for a three-game set with the Rockies.
The offense hasn’t had any players truly step up to this point, though Gavin Lux is playing about as well as he has at any point in his career, hitting .316/.419/.418 with 25 hits, five doubles, 12 RBIs, and 10 runs. Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain are the only ones providing much pop, but Austin Hays and Austin Wynns both have three homers. Overall, a very mid offense.
Hunter Greene continues to pitch like a star, as he’ll almost certainly pick up at least some votes in the NL Cy Young race. Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott have also been solid, while Brady Singer is still a perfect 4-0 despite a 3.62 ERA (though his 3.09 FIP is the best on the team). The bullpen seems to be just fine, though starter-turned-reliever Graham Ashcraft has been lights out, allowing just one earned run over 11 2⁄3 innings (0.77 ERA).
4. St. Louis Cardinals (11-15); 2-4 this week; 5.5% chance to make postseason
After saying I believe the Cardinals have the leg up on the Reds last Saturday, they’ve gone just 2-4, as they were swept in four games by the Mets and lost two of three to the Braves in Atlanta. They’re now back home hosting the Brewers for the weekend.
Brendan Donovan, who missed a few games with a rib injury this week, is hitting .366/.406/.538 to lead the offense, picking up three homers, 14 RBIs, 15 runs, and three steals. Lars Nootbaar is tied with the injured Iván Herrera with a team-high four homers. Every other regular in the lineup is hitting between .200 and .275 — not great, but not bad.
Sonny Gray remains an ace even with a 3.41 ERA, while Erick Fedde and Matthew Liberatore are also formidable arms in the rotation — lucky Milwaukee gets to face all three this weekend! Ryan Helsley, Kyle Leahy, and Steven Matz are all solid out of the bullpen, as is Phil Maton if you take away his one bad outing against the Braves this week.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (11-16); 3-3 this week; 0.6% chance to make postseason
The poor Pirates. They had an OK week, taking two of three from the Angels are being swept by the Guardians. Unfortunately for them, they now have to take on the Dodgers (but they did win the series opener on Friday with Paul Skenes on the bump!)
Joey Bart leads the offense in bWAR at 0.6, hitting .302/.397/.413, though Oneil Cruz leads in basically every other statistical category. Cruz is hitting .256/.359/.535 with seven homers, 14 RBIs, 16 runs, and a league-high 12 steals, though his defense has been his downfall. Andrew McCutchen is enjoying a solid year, and that’s basically all there is to this offense.
I don’t think I need to say much more about Skenes, but he has a 2.39 ERA through six starts. Andrew Heaney has somehow been better, matching Skenes in innings but pitching to a 1.72 ERA and 2.22 FIP while striking out 31. Mitch Keller has had a bumpy season, and Bailey Falter and Carmen Mlodzinski are both clear back-end arms with ERAs over 5.00. Dennis Santana has been a solid closer, and the Pirates’ other top arms (Joey Wentz, Caleb Ferguson, Justin Lawrence, Chase Shugart, Tim Mayza, and Ryan Borucki) have all been solid. As a whole, this staff might actually be the best in the Central. It's too bad their offense is probably the worst.
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