n the 21st Century, China has emerged not only as the preeminent Asian power but also as a decisive global actor shaping the future of geopolitics. Its sustained economic growth, rapid military modernisation and strategic foresight have elevated Beijing into a position of regional superiority that eclipses India’s long-standing aspirations to become South Asia’s hegemon. In contrast to China’s clarity of vision and strategic cohesion, India continues to struggle with inefficiency and inconsistent diplomacy. Its defence infrastructure too does not match its regional leadership ambitions.

China’s defence technology transformation is unparalleled in the developing world. It has shifted from being a regional power with a modest military footprint to a global military actor capable of challenging Western powers. The People’s Liberation Army has systematically modernised its arsenal deploying advanced hypersonic missiles, long-range precision strike systems, nuclear capable submarines and stealth combat aircraft.

China’s emphasis on indigenous innovation, as opposed to dependence on foreign suppliers, reflects its strategic maturity. The development of homegrown platforms like the J-20 stealth fighter, Type 055 destroyers and BeiDou satellite navigation system demonstrates China’s autonomy in critical military technologies. In cyber, electronic warfare, space and artificial intelligence, Beijing is already shaping future combat doctrines. India, by contrast, continues to rely on foreign imports for over 60 percent of its defence equipment, mostly procured from Russia and France. This dependence highlights a persistent technological gap and lack of industrial capability.

India’s opaque defence procurement process, budget constraints and chronic inter-service rivalries have all contributed to a situation where New Delhi is unable to keep pace with Beijing. As a result, India is locked in reactive mode, struggling to deter China’s assertive gestures along their borders.

China’s geopolitical rise is a result of long-term strategic planning. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has created a massive web of economic, infrastructure and diplomatic ties across Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, valued at over $60 billion, is transforming Pakistan. It has also provided China direct access to the Arabian Sea, creating a geopolitical lever against India.

In Afghanistan, China has adeptly filled the vacuum left by the West. By establishing diplomatic ties with the Taliban regime and offering investments without political conditions, Beijing has ensured both political influence and access to rare earth minerals critical to the global tech economy. India, which once maintained goodwill and developmental projects in Afghanistan, finds itself sidelined and irrelevant following US withdrawal.

Meanwhile, China’s strategic advance into South Asia through ports, power plants and political investments in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Nepal has gradually dislodged India from its traditional sphere of influence. India’s inability to match the scale of China’s economic engagement and its tendency to approach neighbours with a hegemonic mindset has only alienated them.

Whereas China’s diplomacy is rooted in pragmatism and strategic patience, India often veers toward reactive and emotive responses to global developments. Beijing has cultivated strong bilateral ties with nearly every major power, including the European Union, Russia, Central Asian Republics and most ASEAN nations. Even in regions like the Middle East and Africa, where India has cultural and historical ties, China’s economic diplomacy has considerably outpaced India’s.

India remains locked in a reactive mode, struggling to deter China’s assertive gestures along their borders.

India’s desire to position itself as the leader of the Global South has not translated into substantive partnerships or influence. Its alignment with the United States in initiatives like the Quad has failed to deliver tangible benefits to its allies and risks antagonising neighbouring countries who view such groupings as a threat to regional stability.

China, on the other hand, has successfully projected itself as a development partner, not a security threat. Even countries with territorial or trade disputes with China continue to engage it diplomatically and economically due to its overwhelming market size, infrastructure investments and the promise of high-tech cooperation.

In the maritime domain, China has established dominance in the Indo-Pacific. It has developed a formidable blue-water navy, capable of sustaining operations far from home waters. Its naval presence in Djibouti, South China Sea, the Indian Ocean and through strategic port like Hambantota and Gwadar, demonstrates a calculated move to secure sea lanes and project power.

India’s navy, though regionally active, lacks comparable expeditionary capability. Its attempts to counter China through joint military exercises or token deployments are symbolic rather than strategic. China’s dominance at sea has already reduced India’s influence over critical maritime trade routes, with ripple effects on regional politics and security.

The 2025 Indo-Pakistan crisis was a defining moment in Asia’s shifting balance of power. As tensions escalated following a cross-border incident and retaliatory strikes, major global powers called for de-escalation. Pakistan’s narrative of restraint and regional stability received near universal acceptance, appreciation and approval.

China’s support for Pakistan was expected. To New Delhi’s disappointment, the US and Russia, refrained from siding with India. This revealed the limits of its influence among presumed allies.

China emerged from the crisis as a stabilising powerbroker. Its successful behind-the-scenes diplomacy and swift coordination with the Pakistani leadership cemented its role as the primary external arbiter in South Asia

China’s ascendancy has not been accidental. It is a product of strategic planning, disciplined execution and a united national will. From military transformation to economic expansion and from foreign policy to internal governance, China has pursued a coherent strategy to position itself as a global leader.

India remains mired in tactical decision-making driven by short-term electoral calculations and internal divisions. Its foreign policy lacks coherence, often swinging between non-alignment and overt pro-West positions. Its internal instability - marked by communal tensions, authoritarian drift and economic stagnation - undermines its regional image as a stable democracy.

China’s rise has decisively altered the strategic calculus in Asia. It has eclipsed India’s regional influence and reshaped global alignments in a manner that leaves New Delhi little room for maneuver. While India still possesses significant economic and military potential, it lacks the strategic vision, institutional capacity and diplomatic discipline necessary to counterbalance China’s multifaceted rise.

It is China not India that is writing the rules in the new Asian centuryi.

The author works for The News, reporting on militancy and security